Se bem que as três primeiras etapas são essencialmente comuns a todo o planeta, porque afectam o mesmo sistema mundial resultante de Bretton Woods criado em 1945 e que durou de forma mais ou menos estável até 1989, a quarta fase que está agora a acontecer varia segundo o país e o tipo de impacto que a crise tem sobre eles. O primeiro choque foi comum , porém as respostas e os caminhos a partir de agora serão diferentes. Constituem por outro lado o processo de reorganização do sistema global e prefiguram os novos equilíbrios que se vão estabelecer durante a próxima década.
No último semestre deste ano iniciar-se-á “a quinta fase da crise sistémica: a fase da desarticulação geopolítica global, que afectará irremediavelmente os quatro actores geoestratégicos principais do planeta: Estados Unidos, União Europeia, China e Rússia, pelo que as populações em geral destes “jogadores” sociopolíticos devem estar prontas a enfrentar tempos terríveis (sic), ou como se diz no “Resistir”, assistiremos à “fragmentação acelerada dos interesses dos principais actores do sistema global e dos grandes conjuntos mundiais”; tempos durante os quais amplos segmentos da nossa sociedade serão modificados, desaparecerão temporariamente, ou se extinguirão de forma permanente”O relatório nº 32 do GEAB, publicado em 17 de Fevereiro de 2009, está disponível em
http://www.leap2020.eu/
o GEAB é conhecido pela análise certeira das situações que analisa: a seguir ao Verão de 2008 anunciou de imediato que a crise era sistémica, e não apenas derivada do colapso do imobiliário; que todos os políticos juravam a pés juntos se devia ao desmoronamento das acções "subprimes" americanas. Sócrates dizia então que ela não nos afectaria (j`amé); mas agora é a crise gobal que lhe serve de desculpa para se livrar da culpa da crise nacional com a qual estávamos já a braços desde 2001 (inaugurada com Durão Barroso, Paulo Portas, Ferreira Leite e Bagão Félix)
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93 comentários:
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